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A puzzle
Googolplex Offline
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Posts: 2,340
Threads: 246
Joined: Oct 2008
#6
RE: A puzzle

(09-16-2015, 11:58 PM)Daemian Wrote: Doesn't matter, no matter which door you pick first, you always end up with %50 chance.
Because they always reveal an empty door, leaving only 2 to choose.

(09-17-2015, 07:49 AM)Mugbill Wrote: Yes, I heard about this "paradox" but it makes little sense to me. Even if your original pick only has a 33% chance, the fact they always remove one of the wrong choices makes that 33% a 50% because effectively there are only two choices.

No. Like brus said it makes sense to switch. Then you will have the double chance.Wink


(09-17-2015, 04:14 PM)FlawlessHappiness Wrote:
(09-16-2015, 07:05 PM)Googolplex Wrote: You have one choice.

This is a lie. The showmaster clearly gives me another choice after picking 1 door out of 3.

You always have one final choice. Even when you switch, you have to choose one door at the end.

(09-17-2015, 04:14 PM)FlawlessHappiness Wrote: If I stay at my first choice, the door that was revealed empty, then I have a 0% chance of getting the car.

If I choose another door I have a 50% chance to get the car.


Which would I pick, you ask? The one where I have a chance of course.



Then another candidate comes in. He has the same conditions as me when I picked a door among 3.

You ask whether he has the same chance than I had. But I had 2 picks where he only has 1.

If we compare it to my first pick, then yes. We both had 33% chance.
If we compare it to my second pick, then no. I have 50% chance, and he only has 33%.

That's wrong. If you stay at your first pick, you have 1/3 chance, when you switch you have 2/3 chance.
(This post was last modified: 09-17-2015, 09:20 PM by Googolplex.)
09-17-2015, 09:16 PM
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Messages In This Thread
A puzzle - by Googolplex - 09-16-2015, 07:05 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Radiance - 09-16-2015, 07:21 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Daemian - 09-16-2015, 11:58 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Mudbill - 09-17-2015, 07:49 AM
RE: A puzzle - by Googolplex - 09-17-2015, 09:16 PM
RE: A puzzle - by FlawlessHappiness - 09-17-2015, 04:14 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Mudbill - 09-17-2015, 09:39 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Googolplex - 09-17-2015, 10:05 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Mudbill - 09-17-2015, 11:10 PM
RE: A puzzle - by FlawlessHappiness - 09-18-2015, 05:13 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Mudbill - 09-18-2015, 08:03 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Googolplex - 09-19-2015, 07:23 PM
RE: A puzzle - by FlawlessHappiness - 09-19-2015, 07:31 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Mudbill - 09-19-2015, 08:14 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Googolplex - 09-20-2015, 02:04 PM
RE: A puzzle - by Romulator - 09-20-2015, 11:02 AM



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